Paynesville, MN Weather

Key Messages

- Cold front is passing through MN this afternoon with much cooler temperatures expected through early next week. Trending warmer again later next week and next weekend.

- Multiple chances for rain through next week. Heaviest rainfall amounts expected across western MN Monday and Monday night.

Discussion

Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

At 2 PM, a cold front was evident on Doppler radar stretching from just east of St. Cloud south to Hutchinson and just west of New Ulm. Temperatures ahead of the front have risen into the mid 70s with a sharp drop into the 40s and 50s behind it. Clouds and showers have been persistent across western MN all day and are not showing signs of expanding eastward yet. The showers appear tied to a nearly stationary pwat gradient despite a progressive surface cold front. Eventually drier air aloft will spread southeast and focus shower activity farther south and east this evening. Due to ridging across the MS Valley, the 1-1.25 inch pwat plume won't clear the region and hang up across southern MN. This will keep low chances for showers going across southern/eastern MN and WI through Sunday morning.

An upper low over the Desert Southwest today will advance to the Rockies late Sunday. As it approaches, shower activity will increase across the central Plains to southern and western MN by Sunday night. The low will track from central NE to eastern SD to northern MN Monday into Tuesday. The best moisture transport will be confined to western MN and is where the best chances for a soaking rain is forecast. Rainfall totals of around an inch are likely across far western MN with amounts tapering off to the east. The system will exit to the north early Tuesday. Another disturbance will quickly follow Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing the next chance for showers.

A ridge will remain parked over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley through the rest of the forecast period. Southwest flow will bring another several disturbances northeast across the Upper Midwest, all bringing with them chances for precipitation. Predictability of each remains low and so PoPs are currently littering the forecast. As predictability increases over the next couple days we should be able to fine tune PoPs a bit better. Regardless of specific timing, it's looking like an active period ahead.

Temperatures will be cool to start the week, but then will warm back to the 60s and quite possibly 70s as the week wears on with broad southerly flow developing in advance of a larger scale system late week.

Aviation

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Cold front over northern-western MN continues to make slow progress eastward across the state, but it still expected to do so through this afternoon and across western WI tonight. Swath of mainly -RA, with few-and-far-between CB/TS, over western MN will still progress eastward but will lose much of its energy thus no CB/TS is expected to reach any of the terminals and any -RA that does will likely have visibility hold at 6SM. Ceilings may well drop to MVFR with any rainfall this afternoon- evening then rise back to VFR levels overnight through tomorrow. Additional chances for rain return Sunday as the front stalls and enough lift tries to squeeze out moisture in the form of rain. Otherwise, mid-to-upper level ceilings will prevail. Winds will swing from SW to NW with the frontal passage, remaining near 15G25kt during the daylight hours today then gradually drop to the 5-10kt range this evening through tomorrow.

KMSP...Dry conditions are expected until late afternoon, then a few showers will try to drift across the field through the mid- evening hours. Little to no impacts are likely, outside of potentially some upper-range MVFR ceilings. Additional showers are possible mid-to-late Sunday afternoon, again with potentially MVFR conditions. Winds at initialization were 220 but the swap to W and NW winds are not too far to the west of MSP, so the wind shift looks to be fairly imminent. Winds will then remain NW from sunset through the overnight hours, and continue to slightly veer to NE during the day Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...-RA/MVFR likely, chc IFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. TUE...Chc A.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. WED...Chc A.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.

Mpx Watches

MN...None. WI...None.