Dayton, MN Weather

Key Messages

- Quiet weather continues this afternoon with a top 10 weather day ongoing.

- Breezy southerly winds expected tomorrow with rain showers possible in western MN.

- More shower chances Saturday along a cold front, with the front stalling south of the area on Sunday. Dry except for western MN on Sunday, with further rain showers expected by Monday morning. The highest rain rates and best accumulations are expected in southwest/southern MN Monday morning.

Discussion

Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

A top 10 weather day is unfolding before us as you would probably struggle to describe a nicer late October day than what we have. Temperatures range from low 70s in western WI and central MN to as high as the upper 70s in southern MN as of 2:30pm, with a light breezy out of the south to southeast and mostly clear skies. The only cloud cover on satellite is over portions of western WI with some fair weather cumulus as the rest of the area is under total sunshine. Our days are getting shorter so get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather while it lasts!

Our last couple 70 degree days will be tomorrow and Saturday as we see breezy southerly winds pick up tomorrow ahead of an incoming cold front which will bring shower chances and much cooler temperatures after it passes. Winds increase to 15-20mph with gusts as high as 30-35mph in western MN by Friday afternoon out of the south with a few showers also moving across the area due to the increased omega from the WAA in the lower levels, as we do maintain enough moisture to produce showers. The breezy winds will partially elevate fire weather conditions, however the showers moving in and the relatively high moisture will keep RH high enough to prevent any sort of statement or Red Flag conditions. The rest of the area remains dry and enjoys the warmer weather until the front arrives, with winds starting to shift in western Minnesota by midday Saturday alongside the arrival of more showers along the front. The synoptic setup for the front is not ideal for widespread sustained rainfall, rather we look to have a line of scattered showers producing rain showers with some gaps expected. This is due to a pair of surface lows with one moving northwards into central Canada and the other down in the southern Plains, with the cold front stretching southwards from the northern low. As a result our forcing is rather weak even with some omega from WAA ahead of the front as we are too far removed from the actual low pressure centers. This line of showers looks to stretch from roughly Duluth to Sioux Falls by Noon Saturday, with showers weakening into the evening and largely dissipating overnight into Sunday. Winds will shift from southerly ahead of the front to northwesterly by Saturday afternoon as they also weaken below 10mph, with a continued northerly shift by Sunday. Weak high pressure tries to slide into the gap left by the front as it sags southwards on Sunday, however the southern plains low looks to move northeast and push the high off to the northwest as a final round of rainfall arrives on Monday morning. This final round looks to be the most robust of the group as the surface low weakens but moves closer to the area, with southwestern and southern MN favored for the highest rainfall amounts which look to range from 1/2 to 3/4 inch.

Behind the front we return to much more normal temperatures in the 50s for highs and upper 30s to 40s for lows, which is much closer to our normal near 50 degree high temperatures by Halloween. However, ensemble guidance is favoring a brief period of above normal temperatures again starting Wednesday as another synoptic scale system moves across central North America, with a warm frontal boundary bringing low level WAA once again. As of right now, this looks to be more mid to upper 50s highs with maybe a few 60s, instead of the 70s we have been seeing. So while it is a cooldown compared to now, it still ends up above normal overall. This warm stretch is also relatively short lived, with the cold front from the same system moving through by the end of next week and returning us to near normal to end the month. We still do not have any indication of near freezing temperatures, which means even if we do see precipitation chances, we expect to see only rain with little chance for any snow.

Aviation

Issued at 543 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

High and then eventually mid-level clouds will build in after during Friday as our next system approaches. A band of -SHRA will move northeast from western MN into northeastern MN early Friday afternoon into Friday evening. For AXN, have included prevailing -SHRA from 18-22z but visibility impacts will be minimal unless a heavier core passes over the terminal. Also, included PROB30s at RWF and STC Friday afternoon where CAMs have some agreement in placement of -SHRA. Broken to overcast mid-level clouds persist through Friday afternoon. South- southeasterly winds remain steady tonight but gradually increase Friday morning into the afternoon. Strongest winds are expected in western MN where sustained values will reach 15-20 knots with gusts near 30 knots. Wind speeds decrease to the east.

KMSP...There is a small chance of -SHRA around 00z Saturday but confidence is currently not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. South-southeasterly winds will gust to 20-25 knots Friday afternoon and evening. Southerly LLWS of 40 knots is also possible Friday evening but opted hold off mention of this until later TAFs.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts becoming W. SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts. MON...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

Mpx Watches

MN...None. WI...None.