K. I. Sawyer Air Force Base, MI Weather

Key Messages

- Light rain showers taper off this evening as a cold front drops south of the area.

- A period of cooler, more normal temperatures with highs in the 40s to low 50s is expected Monday and Tuesday, followed by a warm-up midweek week.

- More active weather begins Tuesday, with almost daily chances for light rain into next weekend.

Discussion

Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Afternoon water vapor and RAP analysis continue to feature deep midlevel troughing over the Four Corners, and ridging expanding out over the Canadian Prairie. An embedded shortwave Closer to home, spotty rain showers continue across the eastern half of the UP with a cold front directed from near Wausau to the Soo. However, some light radar returns continue to drift over the central and western UP, though dewpoint depressions on the order of 10-15 degrees so far is limiting the potential for much of anything to reach the ground. Under cloudy skies, temperatures are coming in a couple degrees cooler than expected across the western UP; temperatures there may only peak in the lower to mid 50s this afternoon. To the east, temperatures are quickly falling back into the 50s and even upper 40s behind the front after having climbed as high as the upper 50s and even lower 60s earlier today.

As we head into the evening hours and the front drops to our south, rain showers largely wrap up, though some spotty activity is not out of the question closer to the WI border through tonight. Temperatures fall back into the mid to upper 30s under cloudy skies, though some of the typically cooler spots in the north-central UP may fall a couple degrees further into the lower 30s.

Ridging begins to recover Monday as the Canadian high becomes centered over Ontario. At the same time, however, the Four Corners trough lifts northward into the Northern Plains by Monday evening, supporting a weak low to the west which may graze the western UP with some rain showers Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. This shortwave lifts north into Ontario Tuesday night, but low-end PoPs continue throughout the day Wednesday as another surface low moves through Manitoba and into Ontario. This drags a cold front through the UP Wednesday night, kicking off better chances for showers. Guidance quickly begins to struggle after Thursday as flow turns more zonal and leaves us sensitive to any shortwave action, but a more active period is anticipated to continue into early November captured by the CPC's 6-10 precipitation outlook of slightly above normal precip. At this time, ensembles don't suggest any widespread meaningful rain across the area with 24hr prob of QPF >0.1" only reaching 60% on any given day. Additionally, above normal temperatures dominate through the rest of the month into early November with seemingly no end in sight. All global ensembles highlight strong positive 850mb temp anomalies even into their extended 200+ hour range.

Aviation

Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Scattered showers in association with a cold front have become mainly confined to the eastern half of the U.P. this afternoon. Therefore, will not carry any rain mention in TAFs. Currently, VFR conditions are prevailing at all TAF sites and are expected to for the duration of the TAF period. Meanwhile, WNW winds remain impactful at CMX with gusts still up to 25 kts through this evening. Elsewhere, sustained speeds are in the 4 to 8 kt range.

Marine

Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Lake Superior: Winds are shifting westerly behind a cold front, gusting to around 15-20kts across most of the lake and up to 25kts along the Keweenaw. These westerlies persist through the evening before turning northerly tonight as high pressure builds into the area. 15-25kt gusts persist into early Monday morning, highest over the east-central waters, before falling back below 20 kts by the afternoon. A period of gustier E to S winds returns Tuesday-Thursday as a pair of surface lows lift west of Lake Superior. The latest and greatest NBM suggests a 40-70% chance for gales to 35 kts through this period, though given the southerly wind direction there remains some questions on how warm air advection may contribute to over-lake stability and max gust potential. Winds fall back below 20kts Friday.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Light winds mainly 15kts or less persist into early next week, turning northerly Monday and then southeast Tuesday. Winds begin to increase Tuesday night, with gusts of 20-25 kts through Wednesday, settling below 20 kts out of the west into Thursday.