Tonganoxie, KS Weather

Key Messages

- Warm and dry through the weekend. Temperatures trend cooler by the end of next week, but remain above seasonal norms.

- Minimal precipitation chances return Tuesday through Wednesday (10- 25% chances, mainly AM); highest potential late week into next weekend (30-60% chances).

Discussion

Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Quiet and seasonably warm remains the name of the game today and to begin the new work week, but gradually gives way to more unsettled conditions. Especially by late week and into next weekend.

The current big picture view across CONUS continues to be highlighted by surface high pressure and mid-level ridging dominating the east and multiple mid-level troughs or cut-off lows providing active conditions over the Mountain West and Pacific Coast areas. While Central CONUS is the transition between the two regimes, the local area remains dominantly under the influence of the mid-level ridge and the westward ooze of the large surface high. For today, that means yet another rinse and repeat day for the most part with temperatures again well above seasonal norms and in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will be lighter than previous days given the position of the surface high, and high level cloud cover will continue to drift across the region. The work-week starts out much the same, albeit likely a couple degrees cooler as 925-850mb temps are expected to come down from around 13 deg C to 11 deg C. By Monday, the current mid-level cutoff low over the SW CONUS will have begun to drift NE through the Intermountain West and become more of an open wave. Model trends continue to push best large scale lift and thus precipitation chances W/NW of the area, yielding no mentionable PoPs through Monday evening.

By Tuesday, the aforementioned mid-level open wave will have effectively flattened and shunted the mid-level ridge eastward. This most readily allows more southwesterly flow across the region. Deterministic guidance depicts a shortwave moving through this flow and a smattering of QPF. The QPF may be a bit generous as lift is concentrated above 700mb and in an environment with lackluster lapse rates / no instability and a dry sub-cloud layer. NBM did populate with some low (<25 percent) PoPs at times Tuesday, mainly over W/NW areas of the CWA, but have left them in place as some light rain cannot be completely ruled out. Wednesday sees steeper lapse rates and some increasing low-level moisture helping yield some instability, but the lack of a lifting mechanism and cap should keep the area dry through the day. By Wednesday night, question becomes just how far southward a synoptic front is able to progress. Near/along that boundary will be the best opportunity for any precipitation, and is reflected in 25-50 percent PoPs mainly over northern areas of the CWA Wednesday evening/overnight. Thursday yields similar questions to Wednesday, with the position of the synoptic front looking to dictate where and if any precipitation will be see in the area. Prevailing sentiment among ensemble guidance keeps best chances primarily over northern half of the area. Temperatures at least partially hinge on cloud cover and precipitation chances, but prevailing ensemble solutions point to ongoing seasonably warm conditions well into the 70s.

Rounding out the work week and into the weekend, conditions become more active, at least primed for precipitation/showers. Modest low- mid level moisture return is well corroborated, along with a series of shortwaves expected to move through the SW mid-level flow. Given timing differences in shortwave arrivals, result tends to be broad/area-wide 30-60 percent PoPs moving in late Friday and through the weekend. Inevitably, it will not rain that entire time, but a wait and see as shortwave timing gets resolved in coming days. Unfortunately, this also potentially means a soggy Halloween across the area. Temperatures likely cool during this time frame as well, but uncertainty in shortwave / potential precip timing yields MaxT 25th/75th temp spreads approaching 7 to 10+ deg F.

Aviation

Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds will be light, largely around 4-7 kts or less. Predominant direction being out of the south to southeast. Cloud cover tends to increase through the period, but of the high level cloud deck variety.

Eax Watches

MO...None. KS...None.