Oberlin, KS Weather

Key Messages

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening in Colorado, then widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Locally strong wind gusts up to 60 mph possible with storms on Friday.

- Windy conditions on Friday with gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected. Patchy blowing dust possible.

- Periodic rain chances through the weekend with cooler temperatures.

Short Term

Issued at 115 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

System in the Desert Southwest will come out in two pieces through the weekend. First part will get picked up by a northern stream shortwave tonight and Friday and be pulled into the northern Rockies. On that track best forcing will stay west of the area, but the CAMs do show scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms both this afternoon and evening and again Friday afternoon and evening. Coverage looks slightly better on Friday due to the height falls associated with the passing wave. Instability today will be less than 500 j/kg and deep layer shear will be around 20 kts, while on Friday instability increases slightly to around 750 j/kg as does shear to 25-30 kts. Not really expecting severe storms either day, but model output does suggest that wind gusts could approach 60 mph with thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with favorable DCAPE values up to 1000 j/kg. Even outside of the convection on Friday, gradient winds will gust 40-50 mph with the deepening lee trough in Colorado. Latest probabilities for meeting High Wind Warning criteria (58 mph) Friday afternoon are around 20% in a small area of northeast Colorado, so the strongest winds will probably be associated with the convection through the evening hours. Relative humidity minimums Friday afternoon are expected to stay above 20% which should mitigate any fire weather concerns, Scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will continue through the overnight with MUCAPE around 500 j/kg.

On Saturday, a surface front makes its way through the area in the morning and early afternoon. Embedded waves in the southwest flow aloft ahead of the cut off low meandering into the Four Corners will also provide synoptic scale lift. Models show a fairly narrow band of showers and isolated thunderstorms accompanying the front. Another surge of moisture moves north Saturday night with additional waves ahead of the main low. By Sunday, the upper low is beginning to transition to an open wave as it moves into Colorado, with widespread rain ahead of it in the plains. This will be a very slow moving system, so periodic rain chances continue through Sunday night. 48-hour QPF means through 12z Monday show a swath of 2-3" will be possible from McCook to Goodland and Tribune, with 1-2" elsewhere, while 25th percentile totals are running 1-2" in the same area and 0.50-1" elsewhere, which may be a more realistic expectation. Given the extended time frame over which the rain will fall, not expecting flash flooding at this time, though there is a low probability (less than 20%) of areal flooding by Sunday if the higher end rain totals can materialize.

As for temperatures, will see one more warm day on Friday with highs mainly in the 70s, then temperatures fall behind the front on Saturday into the 60s and 70s, with coolest day on Sunday with the clouds and precipitation and highs in the 50s. May see some fog develop over the weekend as well with the saturated conditions.

Long Term

Issued at 233 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

On Sunday and into Tuesday morning, a low pressure over the Four Corners region will provide southwesterly flow aloft is still persistent over the forecast area until Monday evening. During this time, a high-pressure system over the Gulf will start bringing in low- to mid-level moisture. With the vorticity and moisture advection, this could lead to long lasting showers over the area until Monday evening. Showers on Sunday and Monday are forecast to be widespread across the County Warning Area (CWA). There is high confidence (70%) that rain totals could exceed a tenth (0.10) of an inch over the area. Precipitation will continue from the short term period and persist until early Tuesday morning.

During this event, northerly cold air advection will consistently cool down temperatures. High temperatures for Sunday are forecast to be in the 50s to low 60s and then cooling 5 to 7 degrees. Low temperatures for Monday are forecast to be from the mid 40s in the southeast and mid 30s in the northwest of the CWA and then cool down an additional 5 to 8 degrees Tuesday. With this, there is potential for a brief period of near freezing temperatures before the precipitation moves out, introducing a brief rain/snow mix. The most likely area to see this mix is northwest of a line from Vona, Colorado to Swanson Lake around sunrise Tuesday morning. No snow accumulation is expected at this point.

On Tuesday, the pattern starts to become uncertain as the trough weakens and slides north over the Kansas-Nebraska state line. Once it moves through, a ridge axis will slide into the area. While it is favored for the ridge to pass through on Tuesday, there are some timing issues within guidance that could either speed up or delay the ridge. If the ridge speeds up, this could lead to showers moving out of the area sooner than expected and help temperatures increase. If the ridge slows down, we then could see showers midday tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures. After this, the ridge will lead into a warming trend lasting into Wednesday with highs in the mid 60s.

Aviation

Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface winds gusting 20-30 kts can be expected ahead of an approaching system.