Leoti, KS Weather

Key Messages

- Above normal temperatures expected through the remainder of the work week.

- Areas of fog this morning and again Thursday morning.

- Breezy to windy on Thursday and Friday. Areas of blowing dust possible on Friday as winds increase.

- Precipitation chances return over the weekend.

Short Term

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Southwest flow aloft continues through the period, between a ridge axis over the Central Plains and an upper trough slowly making its way into the Desert Southwest. Precipitation chances remain slim to none, though can't completely rule out a stray isolated shower as has occurred the last couple of days with weak embedded waves in the southwest flow. There may be a slightly better chance late Friday night with a stronger shortwave ejecting from the base of the trough to the west, but timing is suspect and it may hold off until Saturday. Most locations will be dry through the period. Areas of fog will develop both this morning and again Thursday morning, possibly more widespread as low level moisture continues to increase. Breezy to windy conditions will be possible both Thursday and Friday, especially at night assuming the boundary layer remains mixed and can bring down the stronger gusts of the strengthening low level jet. NBM means show gusts of 30-40 mph on Thursday and 40-60 mph on Friday, highest in Colorado where probabilities of meeting High Wind criteria (58 mph) are currently around 30% by Friday afternoon. If the stronger winds materialize on Friday may see some blowing dust as well with mixing heights favorable at around 5.5 kft.

Temperatures through the period will be above normal under the ridge. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

Long Term

Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Over the weekend, the upper-level pattern continues to be southwesterly as the trough slowly moves to the northeast from the Four Corners region and into the southern Rockies. Toward the surface, low- to mid-level moisture is being fed into the area from the south as return flow from a high pressure system to the east. This will likely lead to a cold front moving into the area midday Saturday and allow for prolonged showers Sunday. With the cold front moving in, weak and low-topped thunderstorms are possible as CAPE is still the main driving force with values being above 300 J/kg. If showers does occur, it is likely favored to the east and over the K-25 corridor on Saturday and south of I-70 on Sunday. While confidence for showers on both days remain high (75%), there is low confidence (20-25%) for thunderstorms to occur before turning into showers on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to drop back into seasonal ranges being in the 60s and 50s.

Starting next week, the trough is forecast to move north of the area midday Monday. For the remainder of the period, the pattern becomes unclear as guidance spread starts to show two possible scenarios of what could happen. The first scenario could be that zonal flow starts to form over the area keeping temperatures in the 50s. The secondary scenario is a secondary trough to the north that could push a cold front into the area and potentially drop temperatures further and into the 40s. However,with the unclear change in the pattern, overnight showers from Sunday and into Monday are still slightly possible as the trough moves through and keeping temperatures for each day being in the 50s.

Aviation

Issued at 515 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Dense fog will impact KMCK through about 16z this morning before burning off. Otherwise, VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through this afternoon and evening. Overnight, low clouds and areas of fog will likely develop once again, with corresponding flight category reductions towards the end of the TAF period.