Missouri Valley, IA Weather

Key Messages

- Shower and storm chances persist over northeast Nebraska through Monday. The best chance will remain northwest of a line from Columbus, to Norfolk, to Wayne (60-90%).

- Periodic rain chances return to all of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa late Tuesday through the end of the week.

- High range from the 60s and 70s on Wednesday into the weekend.

Short Term

18z RAP objective analysis depicts a shortwave trof axis just west of the Four Corners area. Ridging is observed over portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. This places a good swath of the Central and Northern Plains in southwesterly flow. The H8 baroclinic zone has lingering over portions of northeast Nebraska this afternoon. Warm air advection tied to the feature and subsidence from a sfc high that extends from the Dakotas toward our area has trapped low level stratus, helping keep temperatures a tad cooler in the upper 40s to low 50s in northeast Nebraska. Farther south where only a few high based clouds are, temperatures have warmed to the 60s and 70s.

Expect the low clouds in our northern areas to linger for the rest of the day. By this evening, the shortwave trof ejects northeastward. Mid level forcing for ascent will gradually increase, and persistent H8 WAA and moisture advection should provide fuel for more rain showers after 03z across northeast Nebraska (60-90% chance). CAM solutions depict the rain band making it a bit further east toward the Lincoln and Omaha areas closer to 06z. However, there is still some uncertainty if showers will make it that far east. Forecast BUFKIT soundings would suggest some lingering dry air as profiles never fully saturate below H7/H6 at times overnight. Have adjusted NBM PoPs a bit by introducing at least some low chances (15-25%) for some light rain along and north of I-80 from 06z to 12z Monday.

The sfc low will traverse the area on Monday resulting in continued rain showers across northeast Nebraska (60-90%). Highs will be coolest across the north, ranging from the 50s and 60s, while 70s are expected along and south of I-80. A few thunderstorms could develop along the sfc cold front late Monday night as hinted at by some CAMs, but overall instability from BUFKIT soundings appears limited at 100-150 J/kg.

Rainfall amounts by the end of the period will range from a few hundredths of an inch near the Lincoln and Omaha areas. Expect a half inch to an inch of rain northwest of a line from Albion to Norfolk to Wayne. HREF displays 50 to 90% probabilities for at least a half inch or more of rain in that area, while amounts of an inch or more (50-80% chance) are confined to portions west of a line from Neligh to Plainview to Hartington.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Subtle height rises return for Tuesday as the mid-level wave departs the area. Sfc high pressure builds in too which should lead to dry conditions for most locations. A more compact H5 shortwave is seen riding the southwesterly flow for the second half of Tuesday across our far southeast: NBM guidance keys in on some precip chances (15- 30%) for our far south and eastern areas where the wave traverses.

Aviation

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Low stratus ranging from 800 to 1,500 feet is observed over portions of northeast Nebraska including the KOFK terminal this afternoon. Clouds will gradually scatter out at the terminal over the next few hours, but have kept a TEMPO group for brief ceiling drops to MVFR. A band of showers moves in from the west after 03z resulting in IFR conditions. There is still some uncertainty on if KOMA and KLNK will see rain overnight (20-30% chance after 07z), but expect few to scattered low clouds around 1,500 feet in the early morning hours. Winds remain from the north northeast this afternoon at 12 kts or less, switching to southeasterly late in the period.

Oax Watches

NE...None. IA...None.