Orange Park, FL Weather

Key Messages

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Current Coastal/Marine Impacts Worsen Friday Night Through the Upcoming Weekend: - Moderate Tidal and Coastal Flooding Likely - Gale Conditions Possible for the Local Atlantic Waters - Wind Advisory Possible Near the Coasts & St. Johns River - Dangerous/High Surf Conditions and High Rip Current Risk - Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible for Coastal Northeast FL

Near Term

Main Highlights:

- High Risk for Rip Currents - Minor coastal flooding portions of NE FL

Broad high pressure system anchored to the north and subsident conditions will continue to allow for clear skies and little sensible weather other than pleasant afternoons and cool mornings.

Northeast to east flow expected again today with breezy conditions toward the coast. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80 inland and mid 70s toward the coast. Similar overnight lows for Thursday night/early Friday...generally in the upper 40s to around 50 from Suwannee Valley northward, and lower to mid 50s north central FL, and given some onshore flow at the coast around 60 degrees there.

Short Term

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal & Marine Hazards to continue into the weekend with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding, with increasing chances for moderate coastal flooding by Saturday.

- Wind Advisory likely for coastal locations on Saturday afternoon

High pressure will shift towards the eastern CONUS on Friday as a coastal trough develops along the eastern seaboard. A tightening of the pressure gradient between the two features will bring a steady increase in onshore winds into and through the upcoming weekend.

Dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday afternoon, with chances of showers beginning to increase by Friday Night. Convergence from the coastal trough will bring mainly coastal showers by Saturday morning with a few embedded thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. Additionally, the strong onshore flow will bring northeast winds in the 15 to 20 mph range on Friday, becoming 25 to 30 mph with gusts near 35 to 45 mph on Saturday afternoon. A Wind Advisory may be needed for coastal areas on Saturday. With the increase in onshore northeasterly flow, coastal hazards will continue across the local area, including high rip current risk, high and rough surf, gusty winds, and minor to moderate tidal flooding along the Atlantic coast and the St Johns River basin by Saturday afternoon. A need for a Coastal Flood Watch will be determined in the next forecast package.

Mostly clear and sunny conditions away from the coast will allow for temperatures to warm to the mid to upper 70s on Friday and Saturday afternoon, with a bit cooler temperatures along the coast. Overnight Lows will drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region, while the rest of NE FL will be in the lower 60s to upper 60s.

Long Term

Main Highlights This Period: Sunday through Wednesday

- Coastal Hazards Expected at least Sunday and Monday, Likely Through the Week - Potential for localized flooding in heavy rain bands Sunday and Monday, mainly east of I-95

High pressure will remain northeast of the region Sunday and Monday, interacting with troughing over the Bahamas also to persist strong onshore flow and coastal/marine hazards through at least the start of the long term period. The same high will weaken a bit and shift more due north of the area on Monday and into Tuesday, but essentially replaced by a "fresh" ridge of high pressure down the southeastern seaboard for mid week. Due to convergence from the ridging and inverted troughing, bands of showers are expected Sunday through Monday, especially near the coast. A slight weakening in the high pressure will bring a weakening in the onshore flow slightly. There is still high confidence with respect to at least modest onshore winds persisting through the entirety of the long term, which will likely also result in prolonged hazards including minor to moderate coastal/St. Johns River flooding persisting in addition to an elevated rip current risk at area beaches and rough surf/beach erosion.

Temperatures will overall remain near to below normal for the long term thanks to the persistent onshore flow.