Nassau Village-Ratliff, FL Weather

Key Messages

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extended Duration of Coastal and Marine Hazards This Week. Coastal Flood Warning - Moderate to Locally Major Flooding around Times of High Tide along the Atlantic Coast, the Intracoastal Waterway.

- Gale Warning for the Atlantic Waters through this Afternoon & Tonight.

- High Surf Advisory and a High Risk for Rip Currents at all Area Beaches. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through Friday. Gusty Northeasterly Winds Continue at Coastal Locations through Friday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible During the Upcoming Weekend

Near Term

Main Highlights: Through Tonight

- Moderate to Locally Major Coastal/Tidal Flooding Atlantic Coast, ICWW and St. Johns River

-Breezy NNE winds along the coast

Surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic will gradually weaken today allowing the sharp coastal troughing over the area to slightly relax. Breezy NNE winds are still expected with wind gusts of 25-35 mph. A few spots along the coast may reach 40 mph this afternoon but not enough to warrant continuing the Wind Advisory. A seasonably dry air mass (PWATs < 1 in) in place across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley advects southward later today, which will shift shower activity to mainly south of St Augustine. Showers that shift onshore are anticipated to be light and shouldn't exacerbate the significant tidal flooding during high tide cycles. Below seasonable highs continue with highs in the low 70s along the SE GA coast to the upper 70s/low 80s further inland. A gradual loosening of our local pressure gradient tonight will allow for winds to decouple overnight across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, where fair skies will allow lows to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s with onshore winds keeping lows in the 60s for th coast and north-central FL.

Short Term

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Coastal Flood Warnings Remaining in Effect along the Northeast FL Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River Basin. Moderate Tidal Flooding Will Continue Around Times of High Tide for these Locations.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf Advisories Continuing on Tuesday. A High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents will Persist at All Area Beaches. Pounding Surf During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major Beach Erosion.

A stagnant weather pattern aloft is expected to continue through midweek, as a cutoff trough remains situated near the Bahamas, while ridging builds across the southeastern states. This ridge will direct a shortwave trough northeastward from the southern Plains on Tuesday morning towards the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, a slowly weakening surface high pressure center centered over the Southern Appalachians will shift southward over the southeastern states, followed by a reinforcing and strengthening high pressure center building southeastward from Ontario and Quebec towards the eastern Great Lakes and New England. Otherwise, sharp coastal troughing will remain situated over our local Atlantic waters, keeping a tight local pressure gradient in place across our area.

Breezy northeasterly winds will continue on Tuesday, with this flow advecting marine stratocumulus inland from the Atlantic waters across most of northeast and north central FL. These breezy onshore winds will generate enough low level convergence to create isolated to widely scattered showers over the Atlantic waters that will advect onshore along the northeast FL coast, with a few showers moving inland across southern portions of the St. Johns River basin. Cloud cover and breezy onshore winds will keep highs in the mid to upper 70s for locations along and east of I-95. A seasonably dry air mass over southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley will allow for mostly sunny skies, and rising heights aloft will boost highs to the lower 80s for inland locations west of I-95. Our local pressure gradient will begin tightening on Tuesday night as strong high pressure begins to wedge down the southeastern seaboard once again. Lows will fall into the 50s for inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, with 60s expected elsewhere.

High pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard and a sharpening trough extending from the Bahamas westward across south FL will tighten our local pressure gradient on Wednesday. There may be just enough moisture to combine with the strengthening low level convergence to advect isolated to widely scattered showers onshore from the Atlantic waters, mainly across St. Johns and Flagler Counties. Gusty northeasterly winds will keep highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s for locations along and east of the I-95 corridor on Wednesday, with lower 80s prevailing inland. Breezy onshore winds will keep coastal lows on Wednesday night in the upper 60s and lower 70s, while a lighter breeze inland keeps lows in the low to mid 60s.

Long Term

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Moderate Tidal Flooding Likely During Times of High Tide Within the St. Johns River Basin. Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding Will Continue Along the Atlantic Coast and Within the Intracoastal Waterway.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Persist, with a High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents and Significant Beach Erosion Continuing at Area Beaches.

Ridging aloft will remain in place across our area late this week, with this feature then flattening during the upcoming weekend as a another shortwave trough progresses north-northeastward from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes states. Meanwhile, high pressure will weaken as it shifts off the New England and Mid- Atlantic seaboards, with coastal troughing remaining situated over our near shore waters. This coastal trough will combine with veering low and mid level flow to occasionally advect widely scattered showers onshore from the Atlantic waters, mainly for locations along and east of the I-95 corridor in northeast FL. Although multi- layered cloud cover will continue across our region during this time frame, rising heights aloft late this week and warm air advection on the heels of east and southeasterly low level flow will boost highs to the low and mid 80s each afternoon at inland locations. Breezy onshore winds will keep coastal highs in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will generally fall to the lower or mid 60s inland, with coastal lows remaining in the upper 60s to around 70.