Asbury Lake, FL Weather

Key Messages

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extended Duration of Coastal and Marine Hazards This Week. Coastal Flood Warning for Moderate to Locally Major Flooding around Times of High Tide Along the Atlantic Coast and Within the Intracoastal Waterway and the Entirety of the St. Johns River Basin extended through Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind Advisory for the Atlantic Coastal Counties extended through this Evening. Gale Warning for the Atlantic Waters extended through Monday Night. High Surf Advisory & High Risk for Rip Currents through most of this Week. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through most of this Week. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible for Coastal Northeast FL

Near Term

Main Highlights: Through Tonight

- Moderate to Locally Major Coastal/Tidal Flooding Atlantic Coast, ICWW and St. Johns River

- Wind Advisory Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River gusts to 40 mph

- Locally heavy rainfall possible NE FL Coast/I-95 south of JAX

Sharp coastal troughing remains over the area with strong high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states wedging down the eastern seaboard and weak Atlantic low pressure lingering to the southeast. Wind Advisory remains into this evening for the gusty north-northeasterly winds along the SE GA and NE FL coasts. Wind gusts could reach up to around 40 mph at times. Breezy conditions linger overnight with the continued tight pressure gradient. Waves of numerous coastal showers will shift onshore through the late afternoon and evening hours mainly for coastal NE FL counties and I- 95 corridor south of JAX. A few convergent bands may form along the NE FL coast bringing heavier downpours and localized flooding. If these bands coincide with the evening high tide cycle, this could exacerbate the already significant tidal flooding expected. Shower activity wanes overnight with a few coastal showers shifting onshore mainly south of St. Augustine. Meanwhile, a drier airmass (PWATs < 1 in) will keep inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley rain-free. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s inland SE GA to the upper 60s along the NE FL coast.

Short Term

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Coastal Flood Warnings Remaining in Effect along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River Basin. Moderate Tidal Flooding Will Continue Around Times of High Tide for these Locations.

- Wind Advisory Conditions are Likely to Continue through Monday Afternoon at Coastal Locations.

- Gale Warnings Continue for the Atlantic Waters through Monday Night.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf Advisories and a High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents at All Area Beaches. Pounding Surf During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major Beach Erosion.

A tight pressure gradient situated over the forecast area, between high pressure ridging to the north and a sharp coastal trough to the east and southeast, will act to keep wind speeds of 25 to 30 mph on Monday with wind gusts reaching upwards of 35+ mph, with coastal impacts carrying over through the beginning of the week as astronomical high tides continue. Rain showers moving onshore with the flow pattern will diminish by Tuesday as drier air following the flow pattern advects over the forecast area. High temperatures for the beginning of the week will rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 50s for southeast Georgia and will range between the upper 50s and lower to mid 60s for northeast Florida, with min temps in the upper 60s along the coast.

Long Term

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Moderate Tidal Flooding Likely During Times of High Tide Within the St. Johns River Basin. Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding Will Continue for Much of the Upcoming Week Along the Atlantic Coast and Within the Intracoastal Waterway.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Persist, with a High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents and Significant Beach Erosion Continuing at Area Beaches.

- Coastal Shower Coverage Increases along the I-95 Corridor as Northeasterly Winds Again Surge from late Wednesday through Friday.

Northeasterly flow will persist through the week into Friday which, along with coastal troughing and astronomical high tides, will result in a continuance of coastal and marine impacts through the week. Coastal troughing will sharpen after midweek resulting in increased moisture levels and higher chances for showers and storms along the coast and extending into northeast Florida through Friday and into Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will trend near and slightly above average for the end of the week and through into the weekend.