Air Force Academy, CO Weather

Key Messages

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain will continue through early Monday. Flooding impacts are expected over and near our western mountains.

- Warm and dry this week, with a pattern change coming next weekend.

Short Term

Issued at 1258 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the area this morning, mainly lingering over our western mountains and far eastern plains. Latest observations still show high flows and flooding concerns around the Rio Grande and Conejos Rivers, with ongoing impacts on the western side of the San Luis Valley. The high waters will likely continue through the next day or two at least, with downstream impacts delayed as water travels east.

After a brief lull in activity later this morning, more showers and thunderstorms will move up from New Mexico, following the broad upper low moving in from our southwest. Precipitation will spread across the higher terrain and the mountain valleys through this afternoon, moving northeast with time before activity spreads to the plains as well. This will likely result in a secondary surge of moisture across the Rio Grande and Conejos Rivers, with higher waters also moving into the Alamosa area during the afternoon. Conditions will need to be monitored, as several points along the river may meet or exceed flood stages between now and Monday. Forecast updates in regards to flooding potential and impacts will be frequent, so please ensure you have multiple ways of receiving warnings. Do not drive on flooded roads.

More heavy rainfall will also be possible this afternoon over the far southeast plains, with the highest QPF forecast for Kiowa, Prowers, and Baca Counties. Already-saturated areas may see risks for areal flooding, with over an inch of additional moisture possible by Monday morning.

Otherwise, mild and cloudy across the region, with high temperatures in the 50s-60s for most areas. Overnight lows will remain chilly, with 30s-40s for the plains and 20s to low-30s in the valleys.

Several inches of snow are expected for the peaks of the mountains, mainly above 10-11 kft, with some areas seeing a total of 4-8 inches near the peaks. Mountains further east, including Pikes Peak, will see less snow overall, but should still get a few inches at the peaks as well.

Long Term

Issued at 1258 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

The passing system will push east of us by Monday afternoon, leading to warmer and drier conditions across the region for the rest of the week. High temperatures will climb into the 60s to low-70s, with mild overnight lows in the 30s-40s for the plains and 20s for the valleys.

Our next pattern change will come late this week, most likely Friday and into next weekend. Guidance shows a broad upper trough deepening over the Pacific Northwest, with southwest flow moving into our area. This should help return moisture to the mountains, potential spreading more widespread rain into the region over the weekend. As of now, this system also appears to bring some colder air with it, meaning that the mountains at least may see more snow.

Aviation

Issued at 550 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

KCOS: LIFR to IFR conditions are expected at the start of this TAF period, with conditions improving to MVFR by late morning. Currently, thick fog is around the TAF site, significantly lowering visibility and ceiling heights. This fog is expected to dissipate by late morning, though with low level clouds remaining in place, and at MVFR ceiling heights. These low level clouds are anticipated for the rest of the TAF period thereafter. In addition, showers will again increase in coverage this afternoon, which could bring brief periods of reduced visibility. Otherwise, winds will remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots, through this TAF period.

KPUB: IFR conditions are expected at the start of this TAF period, with conditions improving to MVFR by late morning. Currently, thick low level clouds are present at the TAF site, significantly lowering ceiling heights. These clouds are expected to slightly lift by late morning, with low level clouds then remaining in place, and at MVFR ceiling heights, through the rest of this TAF period. In addition, showers will again increase in coverage this afternoon, which could bring brief periods of reduced visibility. Otherwise, winds will remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots, through this TAF period.

KALS: MVFR, to at times IFR, conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Low level clouds will be in place through Monday morning, keeping ceiling heights at MVFR conditions. In addition, showers and weak thunderstorms will again increase in coverage this afternoon, which could bring brief periods of reduced visibility and gusty winds. Otherwise, winds will remain relatively light outside of storms, around and less than 10 knots, through this TAF period.