Magnolia, AR Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Fire weather will remain the primary forecast concern through much of the next 7 days given persistent dry conditions and ongoing drought conditions.

- The lack of appreciable rainfall and growing rainfall deficit will result in further drought degradation through the end of this month.

- A pattern change still remains on the horizon with increasing rain chances by the end of next week and into the final weekend of October.

Discussion

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a high amplitude ridge of high pressure extending from the TX Coast northward through the Great Lakes region and Hudson Bay. Upstream of this feature, a notable split-flow pattern exists, with a strong belt of polar westerlies skirting the US/Canada border with several distinct and potent shortwave troughs noted to the north of the flow near the BC Coast and the other in Saskatchewan. Within the southern stream, a large closed low is depicted across the SW US in the AZ/CA vicinity, with broad SW flow downstream across the Southern Rockies and Central Great Plains where active weather resides. Closer to the surface, expansive high pressure continues to keep a firm hold over much of the US east of the Rocky Mountains, with the exception of a cold front across the Central and Northern Great Plains into the Upper MS Valley.

Another warm day can be expected across the Four State Region today as upper level high pressure continues its persistent influence across the area. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s, with humidity being tempered by dewpoints in the 40s. As has been the case for the last 1-2 weeks, fire weather remains anchored as the primary weather concern today and through the weekend given the dry airmass and ongoing severe drought conditions. Continuing to follow all fire weather precautions will help prevent additional wildfires from developing. Sunday will be generally similar to Saturday, although several degrees cooler with increasing high level cloud cover.

The upper level ridge will remain the primary weather influencer into early next week, with little change in the weather pattern expected. The ridge will begin to dampen on Monday as the upstream pattern becomes more progressive and the closed low over the SW US finally ejects northeastward into the Central Rockies. As a result, cloud cover will be on the increase early next, although conditions will remain dry as surface high pressure remains over the region along with just enough ridge influence aloft.

The upper level ridge will eventually break down by mid week, becoming replaced by SW flow aloft. While this would normally signal at least a temporary change in the pattern, surface high pressure will still remain strong enough over the region to prevent rain chances from returning. That said, by the end of the week, ensemble solutions are in alignment with the development of broad longwave troughing across the entire Western US, placing the Four State Region in a better SW flow pattern in the mid and upper levels. This would indicate a pattern shift, allowing frontal systems a better chance to move into the area and interact with disturbances aloft. It currently appears probable that rain chances will return to the local area by the end of the week or next weekend. That said, there are some discrepancies with regard to the strength of the Western US trough, which may impact the degree of activity within the unsettled SW flow pattern downstream. In addition, it remains a bit unclear how well high pressure at the surface will erode or migrate east. Despite these uncertainties, it at least appears that rain chances will increase at the end of the forecast period and at least temper fire weather concerns.

Kovacik

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

For the 24/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail throughout this forecast period, with some thin high clouds enter northwestern airspace and otherwise mostly clear skies. Some brief misty conditions are possible across southernmost airspace in the vicinity of KLFK near or shortly after 25/12Z, but direct terminal impacts are not currently expected. Light southeast winds of about 5 kts will taper off overnight before increasing to 5 to 10 kts with an easterly course into the day tomorrow.

/26/

Spotter Information Statement

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Spotter activation may be needed through this weekend in the event of wildfire development.