Commerce, OK 74339 Weather

Key Messages

Updated at 1118 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Low rain and isolated thunder chances were added late tonight into Wednesday morning across NE OK in association with a passing upper wave.

- Above average highs and dry weather will be the rule for the remainder of this week.

- Rain chances return during the first half of next week as an upper storm system approaches from the west and interacts with a passing cold front.

Short Term

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

An upper wave is clearly evident on WV imagery and in the 500mb RAP analysis over SW KS this evening. CAMs show increasing coverage of spotty showers across south-central KS/north-central OK tonight into Wednesday as lift from the wave overspreads the region, spreading east and southeast into NE OK into Wednesday morning. Activity has indeed been increasing on radar recently, with lightning observed in some of it. Mid level lapse rates are steep enough to yield some instability aloft. Due to prevailing surface ridging over much of the central and eastern CONUS, the lower levels of the atmosphere remain relatively dry, with the bulk of the moisture above 700mb. Nevertheless, precip coverage and intensity should be sufficient to increase confidence in hydrometeors making it to the ground across portions of NE OK through Wednesday morning. The forcing is expected to weaken as the wave tracks southeast Wednesday afternoon. Some mention of sprinkles was left in the forecast however.

High temperatures should be fairly similar or slightly warmer than today and above average for this time of year.

Lacy

Long Term

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

An amplifying ridge aloft is forecast to prevail over the Plains, downstream from troughing in the West. Above average temps and dry weather will be the rule into the weekend.

Changes in the weather pattern occur by early next week. Energy in the Southwest will move east toward the Plains, while a trough in the northern stream dives down into the country from Canada. The latter system will force a stronger cold front south into the region Monday night into Tuesday. Models have some precip over the region as the wave and front interact. Temps should drop to near or slightly below average behind this front.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms have developed to the west of the area, across northern OK, late this evening and are drifting east-northeast toward KBVO, KTUL, and KRVS as of 0545Z. Have included a TEMPO group for RA and brief period of reduced visibilities at all three of these sites through about 08Z. Though lightning was left out, there is a non-zero chance of lightning within 10 miles of all three terminals with this activity. Guidance shows another round of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two that may impact these same three sites again around mid to late morning Wednesday, though confidence is not nearly as high and was left out of the TAFs for now. Otherwise and elsewhere, VFR is expected to prevail through the TAF period, with SCT/BKN mid and high clouds. Winds remain light from the south to southeast through the period.

Mejia