Ellis, KS 67637 Weather

Key Messages

- Slightly warmer temperatures are expected today with highs in the mid/upper 70s amidst light and variable winds.

- Warming trend will continue on Thursday as modest to strong southerly winds and subsidence aloft support highs in the upper 70s/low 80s.

- Temperature trend reverses Friday through the weekend as highs fall from the upper 70s into the upper 50s/low 60s by early next week.

- Confidence continues to increase regarding precipitation over the weekend, with ensembles suggesting a range of 0.75-2" of total rainfall.

Discussion

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis late Tuesday evening reveal weak ridging is in place from the southern plains through the central plains with a significant, cut-off trough centered just offshore off the west coast. At the surface, broad high pressure reaches from its center over southern Quebec, Canada, southwestward through the central plains, resulting in modest southerly winds across southwest KS. For the remainder of the overnight period, 10-15 mph winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies will support Wednesday morning lows in the low to mid 50s. Daytime Wednesday, short range guidance indicates the strong cut-off low out west will make little progress eastward as the downstream ridge amplifies considerably, extending through the northern plains and into south-central Canada. As a result, surface high pressure over our area will be reinforced, yielding light and variable winds and a slight uptick in afternoon temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday night, light winds and mostly clear skies will permit lows dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Very little change to the synoptic pattern is forecast on Thursday as the high amplitude trough out west and the ridge overhead inch eastward. Nevertheless, lee cyclogenesis will begin in east-central MT and adjacent areas, which will engender more robust southerly winds across southwest KS in the 15-25 mph range gusting to 30-35 mph. Additionally, 850-mb temperatures are progged to increase by 2- 4 degrees C, which will translate to afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s/low 80s.

Friday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the strong upper wave will stall out over the central Rockies before a shortwave trough diving southeast from south- central Canada pushes it onto the High Plains over the weekend and into early next week. This synoptic evolution will support a steady, moderate cooling trend as afternoon temperatures fall from the upper 70s on Friday to the upper 50s/low 60s Tuesday and beyond. Furthermore, the slow progression of the upper wave is ideal for precipitation across southwest KS, and this is indeed reflected by the NBM, which paints plenty of chance (25-54%) to likely (55-74%) pops across much of our area Saturday and Sunday, as well as the ECMWF ENS and GEFS mean total precipitation fields which are in the 1-2" and 0.75-1.5" range, respectively, through next Monday evening.

Aviation

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Weak surface high pressure will result in light winds through 12z. A surface trough will form in the lee of the Rockies toward the end of the period, resulting in an increase in southerly winds. VFR conditions are expected to persist.

Ddc Watches

None.