East Grand Forks, MN 56721 Weather

Key Messages

- Periods of rain are expected to overspread the region Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

- Seasonable high temperatures in the 40s and 50s through early next week, with slightly above average highs by late week.

Discussion

Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

...Synopsis...

A deep trough is in place across the Great Basin, with southeast flow building across the central High Plains. Our CWA is still under the influence of westerly flow aloft, with an embedded shortwave in SW flow to the south of the region. Surface ridging is in place and drier north and eventually northeast BL flow is undercutting the northern edge of this initial precipitation and while a few sprinkles may sneak into the south tonight, most locations are expected to remain dry through midday Monday. After the more organized system moves through the region Monday afternoon through Tuesday, southwest flow develops and persists at least through the end of the week and potentially beyond the weekend (some variance in clusters between ridging and SW by this weekend). The general trend should be for seasonal temperatures to warm slightly from seasonal highs in the 40s/lower 50s to slightly above average highs in the mid 50s/near 60. SW flow aloft inherently brings the potential for additional chances for precipitation, however due to the weak nature of the upper flow in the Plains and variance in guidance resolving any embedded waves confidence in measurable precipitation/impacts is low beyond Tuesday.

...Rain Monday into Tuesday...

A stronger mid level wave organizes into a hybrid type system Monday with large scale ascent increasing across our CWA south to north late Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Initially drier air in northeast BL flow may delay measurable rainfall, however the surge of deeper moisture with WAA and at least some 700MB deformation banding will help saturate the low levels and periods of moderate (locally heavy) rainfall would be expected. As is usually the case with dominant WAA patterns, stronger areas of frontogenesis will tend to be more transient making coverage of higher totals 1"+ harder to anticipate. Better coverage of rain will tend to initially be along and south of US Highway 2, though the track of the mid/upper low will eventually allow rain to overspread northwest/north central MN. High 24hr probabilities (60-80%) for 0.25" or more rainfall are shown by NBM across southeast ND and west central MN, with a 30-50% chance in similar areas for greater than 1" of rainfall.

Regarding snowfall: As with previous rounds of guidance the temperature profiles may at times be cold enough to support a mix or change over to snow, particularly in higher terrain areas west of the Red River Valley late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. However, as HREF/REFS/NBM all show a very weak signal, with lighter rates the chance for any snow to accumulate will be diminished due to warmer ground temperatures. Still, a few novelty snowflakes or a light dusting on grassy/elevated surfaces may occur (best chance west of the Red River Valley (no impacts).

Aviation

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR skies through Monday afternoon with MVFR to IFR spreading north through the region after 00z tomorrow night. Winds remaining around or under 10kts through the period although shifting from the north to northeast by the end of the period. Rain chances also picking up after the taf period with widespread light rain by Monday night.

Fgf Watches

ND...None. MN...None.