Melbourne, FL 32941 Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Hazardous surf and a high risk for rip currents continuing at area beaches. Residents and visitors should use caution at the beach and avoid entering the water.

- Shower chances modestly increase Wednesday along the coast, then drier again Thursday. Rain chances ramp up again this weekend.

- Strong northeast winds forecast to return this weekend; very windy with dangerous surf and boating conditions and a risk for more beach erosion.

Discussion

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Thru Thu...High pressure over the eastern US will maintain a north to northeast wind flow across our area. The pressure gradient will support 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph with occasional gusts up to 30 mph possible Wed. Less gustiness on Thu. A slug of slightly higher PWAT (~1.25") is forecast Wed which will produce more stratocumulus clouds and an uptick in Atlc showers pushing onshore. Drier air makes another push south Thursday, limiting rain chances so most of the area will stay dry Thursday. Max temps will be very seasonable Wed in the low to mid 80s, and slightly cooler on Thu. Min temps will be generally in the 60s with upper 50s north of I 4. There is a chance Sanford and/or Orlando may dip below 60F for the first time this season one of these mornings.

Fri-Mon...Northeast pressure gradient re-tightens as high pressure builds south across the mid Atlc and low pressure develops near or NE of the Bahamas along an old frontal boundary. 12z ECM/GFS guidance continues to show a 8-10mb delta between JAX/MIA which would produce very windy conditions Sat-Sun. Sustained winds Friday afternoon of 15-20 mph increase 20-30 mph Saturday and Sunday with higher gusts. This would support Wind Advisories at least for the coast. Pressure gradient starts to relax Mon and Tue as high pressure weakens allowing winds and gusts to gradually settle down.

These winds will produce another hazardous coastal event with beach erosion, rough surf, and dangerous rip currents, beginning as soon Friday. This event will also coincide with high astronomical tides. Rain chances are less certain with the greatest confidence in measurable precip south of Cape Canaveral through Monday. The best chance for onshore- moving showers arrives Saturday as a surge of higher PWAT pushes onshore from the Atlantic. Max temps in the upper 70s/low 80s but overnight lows warm, holding in the mid 60s interior and low 70s (even mid 70s) coast due to stronger onshore flow.

Marine

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Despite winds and seas starting to decrease/subside, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Winds have largely dropped below the 20 kt threshold for SCA but seas will be very slow to drop below 7 FT due to the N/NE trajectory. Fast, onshore- moving showers are possible again Wednesday, focused mainly south on Thursday, and then increasing in coverage by the weekend. By Friday afternoon and continuing into the weekend, high pressure to the north quickly strengthens and tightens the surface pressure gradient once again. Strong to near Gale force ENE winds are forecast to develop as rain chances increase from south to north. Seas build 12-15 ft by late Saturday, creating dangerous marine conditions. Numerous showers with an isolated storm or two will focus this weekend south of Sebastian Inlet.

Aviation

(00Z TAFs) Issued at 655 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with north- northeasterly flow in place. Expect north-northeast winds at 8kts-12kts with gusts up to 15kts-18kts before weakening tonight. Winds will increase after 15Z WED from the north-northeast at 12kts-16kts with gusts up to 18kts-25kts.