Summerville, SC 29485 Weather

What Has Changed

The Aviation section was updated for the 22/12z TAFs.

Key Messages

- 1) Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will continue into early next week.

- 2) Strong northeast flow this weekend and into early next week will result in several coastal hazards including tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will continue into early next week.

Through Daybreak: Strong radiational cooling is in progress early this morning. The boundary layer has fully decoupled and the airmass remains very dry beneath clear skies. Thermal falls will remain steady through daybreak. Temperatures were lowered significantly from the 22/01z NBM with many locations already near or below its forecasted low temperatures as of 22/05z. The NBM warm bias is typically significant in strong radiational cooling regimes and this morning is no different. Temperatures are generally running about 2-5 degrees colder than 24 hours ago. Expect most areas inland to drop into the lower 40s (some upper 30s) with mid 40s prevalent across the coastal corridor and mid-upper 50s at the beaches.

Today and Tonight: The surface pattern across the Southeast U.S. will remain unchanged through tonight with strong high pressure remaining in control. Another day of full insolation is expected with low-level thickness schemes supportive of highs in the mid-upper 70s, consistent with the various deterministic and statistical guidance. There are signals that a weak sea breeze could develop along the Georgia coast late this afternoon, but no meaningful impacts are expected other than a uptick in surface dewpoints. The boundary layer looks to decouple quickly again after sunset with calm winds prevailing. Some weak recoupling could occur late across the coastal corridor with guidance hinting the pressure gradient could tighten a bit a few hours before daybreak Friday. Temperatures were once again adjusted down quite a bit from the NBM given the expected radiational setup (calm/light winds, clear skies and a dry airmass). Lows will range from the lower-mid 40s inland to the upper 50s/near 60 at the beaches.

Friday through Wednesday: High pressure will strengthen over the Mid- Atlantic States Friday while a coastal trough develops along the Southeast U.S. coast, persisting through the weekend and into early next week. This will cause NE winds to increase, ushering in cooler temperatures, despite dry conditions and abundant sunshine.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees across our SC counties, and the lower 70s across our GA counties. Temperatures moderate into the lower to middle 70s on Saturday, then rising another 1-2 degrees on Sunday, followed by persisting on Monday. Highs should rise to near normal by the middle of next week. Low temperatures will remain below normal inland, except warmer at/near the beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong northeast flow this weekend and into early next week will result in several coastal hazards including tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

Aviation

22/12z TAFs: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 23/12z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds are expected this weekend.