East Flat Rock, NC 28726 Weather

What Has Changed

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

Key Messages

1. Dry weather expected for the next seven days. Temperatures are expected to cool down below normal for the weekend, but should climb back to around normal by the middle of next week.

Discussion

Key message 1: Dry weather expected for the next seven days. Temperatures are expected to cool down below normal for the weekend, but should climb back to around normal by the middle of next week.

A high amplitude blocking pattern will persist through the weekend, with the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia remaining under the northerly flow aloft with the upper ridge axis to our west. The ridge will support a large sfc high over eastern Canada that moves into position over the St. Lawrence Valley tonight, which will support cold air damming east of the mtns developing early Saturday. The guidance continues to indicate an unusually dry cold air damming wedge with plenty of bright sunshine that helps keep temps only 5-10 degrees below normal for Saturday. The only clue that we are in a wedge regime will be the breezy northeast winds outside the mtns. Low temps early Sunday will be similarly cool, but any freeze potential will be limited to ridgetops above 6k feet. Frost will depend on whether or not sfc winds go light/variable. After that, no significant weather threats are apparent. The pattern will become more progressive and should deamplify Sunday night into Monday. Ridging will remain in place through mid-week. Air mass modification should result in temps making it back to normal from Monday into Tuesday. A short wave may cross the region during the middle part of the week, but will be moisture-starved, so no precip will be forecast.

Aviation

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR. Winds should strengthen from the NE by 13-15z, generally 7 to 9 kt except at KAVL, though gusts do not look frequent enough to mention. KAVL appears more likely to be light/VRB until setting up from SE late this afternoon. As high builds south along the Eastern Seaboard tonight, NE flow will be reinforced east of the mountains and should pick up slightly or maybe even become slightly gusty on those areas toward dawn Sat. KAVL probably will decouple tonight despite the high building in, and if any clouds are seen they likely would be radiational stratus. Could see a few clouds at or below FL030 begin to develop at KHKY by 05-07z, and also at KCLT by around 12z.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through the middle of next week outside of the potential for mountain valley fog and low stratus each morning.