Lenoir, NC 28633 Weather

What Has Changed

Aviation discussion updated for the upcoming 12z TAFs.

Key Messages

1. A Special Weather Statement for Increased Fire Danger is in effect for northeast Georgia again today, starting at Noon and running through 7 PM this evening. 2. Dry weather is expected to continue for the next seven days.

Discussion

Key message 1: A Special Weather Statement for Increased Fire Danger is in effect for northeast Georgia again today, starting at Noon and running through 7 PM this evening.

High pressure to the north will continue to supply dry air to the region through today, but maybe with afternoon RH not quite as low as Tuesday. Fcst soundings show the dry air aloft, which should mix down to some degree through the afternoon. The NBM has not responded enough to the dry air, so dewpoints again today will be blended with the drier CAM solutions, resulting in min RH this afternoon down in the middle 20s percent. Though wind will be light, the consensus was to issue another Fire Danger Statement based on the dry fuels and low RH this afternoon.

Please refer to your local burn permitting authority on whether you can burn today. If you do burn, use extreme caution since fires can quickly get out of hand under these conditions.

Key message 2: Dry weather is expected to continue for the next seven days.

A mid/upper low will continue to meander off the Mid-Atlantic coast today and tonight, then will get picked up by a short wave in the nrn stream Thursday which should finally carry it off to the east. In the mean time, weak high pressure to the north will be our main weather factor, with dry air aloft likely mixing down this afternoon and Thursday afternoon which should lower the RH down near critical values in the mid-20s. A Fire Danger Statement will be issued again for this afternoon (see previous key message). As for temps, they should be a couple of degrees on the warm side of normal.

Friday looks like a transition day of sorts. Altho the old upper low gets assimilated by the upper low over the Canadian Maritimes, the overall high-amplitude blocking pattern is essentially unchanged. However, our region comes more under a N to NW anticyclonic flow aloft from the ridge to our west that is so large it supports sfc high pressure over Ontario/Quebec. This high takes on a more classical dry cold air damming parent high posture over New England by late Friday and into Saturday. The onset of this new regime drops temps a few degrees below normal for Friday, but then drops them further to 5-10 degrees below normal for Saturday, which should be the coolest day of the string. Saturday night is not expected to be cold enough for a freeze anywhere that our program remains active, but there could be some frost potential if winds are calm enough. The high lingers through Sunday with a slight moderation in temps. As we get into Monday, the upper pattern finally becomes progressive again and deamplifies. The upper ridge axis crosses the region and then we have a nearly zonal flow aloft before a weak wave approaches late Wednesday. At this point, moisture return looks poor, so precip probs were kept below 10 percent. Temps should rise back above normal from Monday onward.

Aviation

At KCLT and elsewhere: No change for the 12z TAFs. VFR through the period at TAF sites. Fog will likely form in the usual mountain valley locations and some of the larger lakes again tonight, but should not impact any of the TAF sites. Winds generally out of the N to NNE, around 5 kt or less thru the period.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through early next week outside of the potential for patchy fog and low stratus each morning in the mountain valleys and near lakes.