Washington, DC 20204 Weather

What Has Changed

Nothing.

Key Messages

- 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through early next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through early next week.

The pattern will remain relatively stagnant through tomorrow, with a Nor'easter continuing to circulate off the Mid- Atlantic coast and high pressure gradually building to our north. Northerly winds will continue to advect dry air into the region, leading to clear skies. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals, with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows in the mid to upper 30s (west of the Blue Ridge) to lower to middle 40s (east of the Blue Ridge).

By Thursday, what remains of the upper reflection of the offshore closed low gradually becomes absorbed into a deep trough over eastern Canada. These adjoining features are slated to pull eastward into the Canadian Maritimes while upstream heights build across the Mississippi Valley. From Friday and into this weekend, this broad ridge axis advances eastward ahead of a trough inhabiting the western/central U.S. As this occurs, there are some hints of another upper low center getting pinched off near the Carolina coast. However, its far southward displacement should minimize any direct impacts from this system. Overall synoptic uncertainty does increase markedly toward the end of the weekend and into early next week. Most notably, it revolves around a split in the jet streams over the middle of the continent.

Looking down at the surface, high pressure dominates through late week while becoming more centered over the northeastern U.S. by Saturday. This ensures continued tranquil weather heading toward the last week of October. Expect dry conditions along with abundant sunshine each day. The air mass will remain quite dry owing to the prevailing northerly component to the local wind fields. Most days should yield highs in the 60s (50s for the mountains). The coldest overnight periods will likely be Friday and Saturday nights as lows fall into the 30s to low 40s. With the growing season having ended from the Blue Ridge westward, it remains to be seen if any frost/freeze threats emerge off to the east.

Aviation

VFR conditions and northerly winds are expected through tomorrow. A few gusts to around 15-20 knots may be possible at times at MTN, BWI, DCA, and IAD.

VFR conditions are anticipated for Thursday through Saturday given robust high pressure over the region. Winds through Friday will mainly be northerly with afternoon gusts to around 15 to 20 knots. As high pressure settles overhead, winds turn lighter by Saturday.