New Paltz, NY 12561 Weather

What Has Changed

Lowered dew points each afternoon today through Friday given dry air advection.

Key Messages

1) No significant weather through at least Monday with high confidence in dry weather persisting.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Our stretch of dry weather continues as high pressure remains in control of the Northeast maintaining large scale subsidence. Sunny skies today mix with cirrus clouds, mainly for areas south/east of the Capital District, as our offshore nor'easter slowly drifts north and east but remains south of the New England coast. Otherwise, northerly winds remain a bit breezy in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT with gusts reaching 15-25kts given the relative closer proximity to the nor'easter and lingering pressure gradient. Cirrus clouds linger overnight but should be thin enough as not to impede radiational cooling leading to a seasonably cool night. North-northeasterly winds become a bit breezy across the region tomorrow afternoon under increasing clouds as an upper level trough and moisture starved cold front swing through the Northeast. Wind gusts 20-25kts continue into Thursday night. Skies turn clear/sunny with winds weakening by Friday thanks to large scale subsidence and sfc high pressure building overhead along with cool/very dry air advection. Temperatures trend seasonably cool Friday and Saturday with high confidence that ideal radiational cooling results in low temperatures near or under 32 degrees by early Saturday morning. With high pressure remaining centered over the Northeast through early next week, there is high confidence that eastern NY and western New England remain precipitation- free through at least Monday with only a low chance (under 25%) for less than a 0.10" of rain by the middle of next week.

Aviation

With high pressure nearby, flying conditions continue to be VFR for this afternoon into this evening. Few-sct high cirrus clouds from the nearby coastal Nor'Easter are off to the southeast with no aviation impact. Surface winds are generally from the north to northeast around 5-10 kts and this will continue through the early evening hours.

Winds for tonight will become light to calm for all sites. Skies will remain fairly clear through the overnight hours. It will be rather cold and dry overnight, so this should help prevent much widespread radiational fog from forming. Local terrain effects could allow for a period of fog near KGFL towards daybreak, but confidence in this is rather low at this time, so will leave out of the TAF for now, but will continue to monitor that potential.

On Thursday, flying conditions will still be VFR with a fairly clear sky and no precipitation. Just some additional passing cirrus will be possible for Thursday. During daytime mixing, winds will become northwest and increase to around 10 kts for all sites. Some higher gusts can't be ruled out, especially at KALB and KPSF.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.