South Burlington, VT 05403 Weather

What Has Changed

As of 243 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes to the current forecast.

Key Messages

As of 243 PM EDT Monday...

1. Behind a weak cold front this afternoon, high pressure will return with sharply colder air towards mid week.

2. Light rain possible Thursday night as a frontal boundary moves through the region, then mostly dry and seasonably warm weather prevailing into the weekend.

Discussion

As of 243 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 visible satellite depicts a narrow moisture corridor associated with a weak cold front stretched across the region this afternoon. While most of the radar returns have ended up being virga, some locations in the St. Lawrence Valley have been able to pick up a few hundreths of an inch of rainfall. By and large however, many locations will remain dry with little to no measurable rain from this frontal system, especially those in Vermont where dewpoint depressions are 10-15 degrees. A few places along the northwest facing slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Greens, including Jay Peak, could a few sprinkles though due to orographic influences. Winds will turn to the north-northwest as the front moves through this afternoon advecting sharply colder air and some briefly gusty winds this evening from Canada. As nocturnal cooling begins after sunset this evening, winds will briefly increase in the northern Champlain Valley up to 25 MPH or so between 7-10 PM. Winds will weaken towards calm thereafter. Tonights lows will cool to the upper 20s for many locations with a few locations hovering around the freezing mark in the wider valleys; coldest locations will be across northern New York and the Northeast Kingdom. Tomorrow will feature sunny skies with continued cool high temperatures struggling to reach the upper 40s. The coldest night of the season arrives Tuesday night under strong radiational cooling. Overnight lows may approach some records for Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, with records elsewhere residing in the 10th percentile or lower. Temperatures will drop to the teens across the Adirondacks and low 20s elsewhere. Temperatures slowly rebound Wednesday as high pressure and south winds help to moderate our pattern. Temperatures will warm to the low to mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Low chances for some showers on Thursday night as a front crosses our area. With center of the low passing well north of our area, not a lot of strong forcing with this frontal passage. If we have precipitation, it will be light. Then we once again expect mostly dry and seasonably warm weather for Friday and Saturday as a ridge of surface high pressure builds into the north country. Some models indicate increasing chances for showers early next week, but not a lot of model consistency in that timeframe at this point. .

Aviation

Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions today with exception of brief MVFR ceilings as cold front drops across our area. Some light rainfall has been observed as well. All terminals will trend back to VFR by 00z and are expected to remain that way for the remainder of the forecast period. Winds tonight will generally be light and terrain influences, increasing out of the south/southwest towards morning. Behind the front, winds shift to become more northwesterly and may be gusty at BTV and PBG with channeled flow.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.