Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
The odds
61%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike61%▼ 5
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%▼ 1
- Hike–Hike–Hike12%▲ 2
- Hike–Hike–Pause4%▲ 1
- Other2%
How the odds have moved
Hike–Pause–Hike: 62% on Oct 13, 61% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike–Pause–Hike | 61% | ▼ 5 | 61¢ | 62¢ | $56.0K |
| Hike–Pause–Pause | 21% | ▼ 1 | 20¢ | 22¢ | $63.3K |
| Hike–Hike–Hike | 12% | ▲ 2 | 11¢ | 13¢ | $81.4K |
| Hike–Hike–Pause | 4% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 5¢ | $42.8K |
| Other | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $20.5K | |
| Pause–Pause–Hike | <1% | ▼ 3 | 0¢ | $2.1K | |
| Pause–Pause–Pause | <1% | ▼ 8 | 0¢ | $15.6K | |
| Pause–Hike–Hike | <1% | ▼ 3 | 0¢ | $2.0K | |
| Pause–Hike–Pause | <1% | ▼ 4 | 0¢ | $2.7K |
Related markets
All central banks & rates ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.22%median
0.88%4.63%
Median 4.22%Middle half 4.08% – 4.34%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting34%▲ 1
- March 2027 Meeting18%▲ 2
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.