Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
10%June 30, 2027
- December 31, 20262%
- June 30, 202710%▼ 1
Install
Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
The odds
97%Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%
- Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%97%
- Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5%3%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% | 97% | 96¢ | 98¢ | $10.9K | |
| Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% | 3% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 4¢ | $6.2K |
| Kevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5% | <1% | ▼ 8 | 0¢ | $15.6K | |
| Kevin Hassett & Rate > 2.5% | <1% | 0¢ | $11.1K | ||
| Rick Rieder & Rate ≤ 2.5% | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $36.1K | |
| Rick Rieder & Rate > 2.5% | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $32.5K | |
| Christopher Waller & Rate ≤ 2.5% | <1% | 0¢ | $11.8K | ||
| Christopher Waller & Rate > 2.5% | <1% | 0¢ | $11.3K | ||
| Other | <1% | ▼ 10 | 0¢ | $26.1K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting33%
- March 2027 Meeting17%▲ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%▼ 1
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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