10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?

Kalshi Closes Fri 3:30 PM ET · 2.4K contracts · prices read 70 min ago

The odds

5.21%median
10Y Yield now 5.240 −0.08%
5.05%5.35%
Median 5.21%Middle half 5.15% – 5.31%Above today's price 49%

How the odds have moved

Median: 5.21% on Oct 13, 5.21% now.

The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Contracts
5.08% or above 94% ▼ 2 78¢ 94¢ 405
5.1% or above 93% 70¢ 87¢ 290
5.12% or above 81% 69¢ 85¢ 747
5.14% or above 81% 60¢ 79¢ 137
5.22% or above 49% 37¢ 49¢ 25.00
5.24% or above 49% ▼ 5 29¢ 44¢ 68.00
5.26% or above 49% ▲ 12 22¢ 39¢ 12.00
5.28% or above 46% ▲ 3 18¢ 35¢ 107
5.3% or above 38% 11¢ 30¢ 41.00
5.32% or above 29% 7¢ 26¢ 33.00
5.34% or above 10% ▼ 10 5¢ 21¢ 509

More on this question

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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