United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor?
84.45%median
81%86%
Median 84.45%Middle half 83.59% – 85.08%
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United Airlines passengers in Q3 (passengers in Q3 2026)
The odds
50.21Mmedian
47.50M52.50M
Median 50.21MMiddle half 49.74M – 50.65M
How the odds have moved
Median: 50.21M on Oct 13, 50.21M now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 47.75 million | 98% | 95¢ | 10.00 | ||
| Above 48 million | 97% | 94¢ | |||
| Above 48.25 million | 97% | 93¢ | 203 | ||
| Above 48.5 million | 96% | ▲ 1 | 93¢ | 99¢ | |
| Above 48.75 million | 95% | ▲ 1 | 91¢ | 98¢ | 31.00 |
| Above 49 million | 93% | ▼ 1 | 89¢ | 96¢ | 104 |
| Above 49.25 million | 90% | 86¢ | 94¢ | 334 | |
| Above 49.5 million | 88% | ▲ 1 | 84¢ | 92¢ | 467 |
| Above 49.75 million | 75% | ▲ 1 | 71¢ | 78¢ | 359 |
| Above 50 million | 63% | ▼ 6 | 60¢ | 66¢ | 1.0K |
| Above 50.25 million | 48% | ▼ 7 | 45¢ | 50¢ | 871 |
| Above 50.5 million | 36% | ▼ 30 | 31¢ | 40¢ | 1.5K |
| Above 50.75 million | 18% | 14¢ | 22¢ | 340 | |
| Above 51 million | 12% | 8¢ | 16¢ | 416 | |
| Above 51.25 million | 10% | 6¢ | 14¢ | 205 | |
| Above 51.5 million | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | 112 | |
| Above 51.75 million | 6% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 9¢ | 10.00 |
| Above 52 million | 4% | 2¢ | 6¢ | 84.00 | |
| Above 52.25 million | 3% | 6¢ |
Related markets
All stocks & companies ›United Airlines passengers flown in 2026
187.63Mmedian
176.00M198.00M
Median 187.63MMiddle half 185.92M – 189.34M
Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?
31%chance▼ 2
United Airlines Credit Card Spend in October (October 2026)
103.7median
100117
Median 103.7
United Airlines (UAL) Q3 total revenue per available seat mile (cents)?
29%19.5¢ to 20¢
- 19.5¢ to 20¢29%▲ 8
- 20.5¢ to 21¢21%▼ 1
- 21¢+18%▼ 4
- <19.5¢16%▲ 2
1 more
- 20¢ to 20.5¢15%▼ 13
Largest Company end of December 2026?
76%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA76%▼ 8
- Apple22%▲ 8
- Alphabet2%
- Microsoft<1%
4 more
- SpaceX<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Amazon<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.