Predictions › Crypto Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? Polymarket Closes Dec 31 · $23.1K traded · prices read 15 min ago
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $92,500 .
Reaches $90,000 62% Reaches $95,000 39% Reaches $100,000 27% Reaches $110,000 12% Falls to $70,000 39% Falls to $65,000 23% Falls to $60,000 15% Falls to $55,000 10% Already reached: ↓ 60,000, ↑ 85,000, ↑ 80,000, ↑ 75,000, ↑ 70,000, ↑ 65,000
by December 31, 2026 3% by March 31, 2027 8% by June 30, 2027 14% by September 30, 2027 16% ▼ 1 1 more by December 31, 2027 27% ▼ 6 Reaches $3,000 42% Reaches $3,500 19% Reaches $4,000 9% Reaches $4,500 5% Falls to $2,250 49% Falls to $2,000 27% Falls to $1,750 14% Falls to $1,500 9% Already reached: ↑ 2,750, ↑ 2,500, ↑ 2,250, ↑ 2,000, ↑ 1,750, ↑ 1,750
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $87,135 and as low as $78,750 .
Reaches $85,000 71% Reaches $87,500 47% Reaches $90,000 30% Reaches $92,500 16% Falls to $80,000 63% Falls to $77,500 38% Falls to $75,000 23% Falls to $72,500 13% Already reached: ↑ 85,000, ↓ 82,500, ↓ 85,000, ↑ 85,000, ↓ 85,000, ↓ 85,000
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Trading closes Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET
Traded $23.1K traded
Prices read 15 min ago
Followed since Oct 12, 2026
The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket .
Reading the odds Each price is the market's probability: a contract at 84¢ that pays $1 if the outcome happens means traders give it an 84% chance. The number shown is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
Every prediction market
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use .