Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above __?

Polymarket Closes today 9:30 AM ET · $5.2K traded · prices read 30 min ago

The odds

$3.14Bmedian

$2.75B$3.65B

Median $3.14BMiddle half $2.96B – $3.28B

How the odds have moved

Median: $3.12B on Oct 13, $3.14B now.

The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Traded
$2.9B	76%	▼ 2	55¢	97¢	$246
$3.05B	74%	▲ 11	55¢	92¢	$1.1K
$3.2B	35%	▲ 3	29¢	41¢	$758
$3.35B	17%	▼ 2	12¢	21¢	$1.4K
$3.5B	10%	▼ 1	1¢	19¢	$1.7K

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JPMorgan (JPM) closes at $1T+ market cap by…?

16%December 31

October 3110%▲ 2
December 3116%▼ 3

JPM+0.39%

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

2%JPMorgan Chase

RBC3%
BNP Paribas3%
Truist3%
JPMorgan Chase2%

15 more

Goldman Sachs3%
US Bank3%
BNY3%
Wells Fargo3%
Santander3%
KeyBank3%
Morgan Stanley2%
Citigroup2%
Bank of America2%
BMO2%
HSBC2%
Deutsche Bank2%▼ 1
Scotiabank2%
Lloyds2%
UBS1%

WFC−0.28%UBS−0.64%BAC+0.48%C+1.76%

Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?

97%chance▲ 1

JPM+0.39%

Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

<1%JPMorgan

Morgan Stanley82%
Goldman Sachs16%
Citigroup1%
JPMorgan<1%

5 more

Barclays1%
Wells Fargo1%
Bank of America<1%
UBS<1%
Deutsche Bank<1%

BAC+0.48%BCS+0.48%C+1.76%GS−0.15%

Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase?

3%chance▲ 1

JPM+0.39%

Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027?

6%JPMorgan Chase

Citigroup7%
Goldman Sachs7%
JPMorgan Chase6%
Morgan Stanley5%

1 more

Bank of America5%

GS−0.15%BAC+0.48%JPM+0.39%MS0.00%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.