Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
2.38%median
2%3.6%
Median 2.38%Middle half 2.33% – 2.45%
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Core CPI MoM - September 2026
The odds
0.22%median
-0.05%0.65%
Median 0.22%Middle half 0.17% – 0.28%
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.22% on Oct 13, 0.22% now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤0.0% | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $6.9K | |
| 0.1% | 12% | ▼ 1 | 11¢ | 14¢ | $8.1K |
| 0.2% | 49% | ▲ 2 | 49¢ | 51¢ | $18.6K |
| 0.3% | 30% | ▼ 3 | 30¢ | 31¢ | $16.5K |
| 0.4% | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $4.1K | |
| 0.5% | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2.6K | |
| 0.6%+ | <1% | 0¢ | $2.1K |
More on this question
All inflation & jobs ›Core CPI YoY - September 2026
2.44%median
1.95%2.95%
Median 2.44%Middle half 2.39% – 2.51%
CPI core month-over-month in Sep 2026?
0.21%median
-0.25%0.55%
Median 0.21%Middle half 0.15% – 0.28%
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?
2.51%median
2.15%3.75%
Median 2.51%Middle half 2.41% – 3.02%
CPI core in September (In Sep 2026)
0.17%median
-0.1%1.1%
Median 0.17%Middle half 0.11% – 0.24%
September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
42%Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%42%▼ 1
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above38%
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.1% or below8%▼ 2
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below4%▲ 1
8 more
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%2%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: Exactly 0.2%1%▼ 1
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above1%
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.1% or below1%
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%1%
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.3% or above1%
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.1% or below1%
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.3% or above1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.