How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

Kalshi Closes Oct 30 · 32.0K contracts · prices read 56 min ago

The odds

4.79%median
5Y Yield now 4.899 0.00%
4.76%4.9%
Median 4.79%Middle half 4.78% – 4.89%

How the odds have moved

Median: 4.95% on Oct 14, 4.79% now.

The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Contracts
4.76% or below 79% 26¢ 83¢ 1.2K
4.77% or below 79% 25¢ 82¢ 300
4.78% or below 49% ▼ 52 23¢ 78¢ 2.9K
4.79% or below 49% 20¢ 74¢ 299
4.82% or below 49% 11¢ 64¢ 394
4.85% or below 42% 7¢ 52¢ 43.00
4.86% or below 42% 5¢ 48¢ 10.00
4.87% or below 42% 7¢ 46¢ 300
4.88% or below 14% 6¢ 42¢ 328
✓ 4.89% or below 11% 310
✓ 4.9% or below 1% ▼ 13 207
✓ 4.91% or below 2% 102
✓ 4.92% or below 10% ▼ 80 152
✓ 4.93% or below 10% ▼ 80 152
✓ 4.94% or below 1% ▼ 17 1.7K
✓ 4.95% or below 8% ▼ 75 1.2K
✓ 4.96% or below 9% ▼ 6 2.5K
✓ 4.97% or below 3% ▲ 1 310
✓ 4.98% or below 8% ▲ 6 310
✓ 4.99% or below 12% 270
✓ 5% or below 10% 3.2K
✓ 5.01% or below 1% 1.1K
✓ 5.02% or below 1% 2.1K
✓ 5.03% or below 1% 3.0K
✓ 5.04% or below 1% 3.3K
✓ 5.05% or below 1% 6.3K

More on this question

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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