US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
Bank of Korea decision in November?
The odds
49%No Change
- No Change49%
- 25 bps hike46%
- 25 bps cut4%
- 50+ bps cut1%
- 50+ bps hike<1%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 49% | 49¢ | 50¢ | $17.8K | |
| 25 bps hike | 46% | 46¢ | 47¢ | $11.2K | |
| 25 bps cut | 4% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $1.0K | |
| 50+ bps cut | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $1.2K | |
| 50+ bps hike | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $1.3K |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.1 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.25%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.25%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▼ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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