US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
The odds
832.17Bmedian
400.00B1.20T
Median 832.17BMiddle half 740.71B – 892.97B
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <500B | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $16.9K | |
| 500–600B | 5% | 3¢ | 7¢ | $454 | |
| 600–700B | 10% | 6¢ | 14¢ | $551 | |
| 700–800B | 20% | 15¢ | 27¢ | $725 | |
| 800–900B | 41% | ▼ 4 | 29¢ | 58¢ | $2.0K |
| 900B–1T | 15% | ▲ 2 | 11¢ | 20¢ | $1.6K |
| 1T–1.1T | 4% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $1.6K | |
| 1.1T+ | 4% | ▲ 2 | 2¢ | 5¢ | $1.2K |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.1 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.25%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.25%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▼ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.