US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?
The odds
$1.11Mmedian
$1.04M$1.18M
Median $1.11MMiddle half $1.07M – $1.14M
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$1.062M | 23% | ▲ 1 | 25¢ | 26¢ | $1.7K |
| $1.062M - $1.083M | 3% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 5¢ | $1.3K |
| $1.083M - $1.104M | 19% | ▼ 1 | 18¢ | 23¢ | $2.3K |
| $1.104M - $1.125M | 17% | 17¢ | 19¢ | $1.8K | |
| $1.125M - $1.146M | 19% | 20¢ | 21¢ | $2.0K | |
| $1.146M - $1.165M | 15% | ▼ 2 | 14¢ | 18¢ | $1.2K |
| $1.165M+ | 4% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $1.8K |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.1 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.25%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.25%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▼ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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