US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
Government spending increase in 2026
The odds
$454.16Bmedian
$-48B$1.25T
Median $454.16BMiddle half $408.95B – $499.37B
How the odds have moved
Median: $454.11B on Oct 13, $454.16B now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least $1 billion | 98% | 95¢ | 100¢ | 62.00 | |
| At least $50 billion | 97% | 95¢ | 100¢ | 36.00 | |
| At least $100 billion | 97% | 95¢ | 100¢ | 28.00 | |
| At least $200 billion | 97% | ▲ 1 | 95¢ | 99¢ | 817 |
| At least $300 billion | 95% | ▲ 1 | 91¢ | 99¢ | 1.5K |
| At least $400 billion | 80% | ▼ 12 | 75¢ | 85¢ | 3.2K |
| At least $500 billion | 25% | ▼ 7 | 20¢ | 29¢ | 3.5K |
| At least $750 billion | 10% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 14¢ | 1.4K |
| At least $1 trillion | 5% | 1¢ | 10¢ | 582 |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.0 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.24%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.24%Middle half 2.66% – 3.94%
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▲ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.